Copper Analysis 2025 – Breakout Setup Backed by Fundamentals and Technicals

Copper, often called “the metal with a PhD in economics”, is sending a clear message: we’re entering a new bullish era.

As of mid-May 2025, Copper is trading above $4.85 per pound, approaching the psychological $5.00 level — a key threshold that could trigger further upside momentum.

---

🔎 Fundamentals: A Perfect Storm of Demand and Supply Pressure

Copper is no longer just about cyclical demand — it’s about structural shifts:

• 🟩 Demand is exploding thanks to:
  • Accelerated electrification (EVs use up to 4x more copper than traditional cars)
  • Renewable energy infrastructure (cables, turbines, transformers)
  • China’s infrastructure push and global energy transition
• 🟥 Supply remains constrained:
  • Inventories at multi-year lows (LME + SHFE down over 40% YoY)
  • Underinvestment in mining: new copper projects take 8–10 years to develop
  • Smelting disruptions in Peru and DRC
  • China controls ~70% of global refining capacity — a geopolitical risk amid trade tensions

📊 Big Banks Are Bullish:

• Goldman Sachs sees $10,700/ton within 12 months
• Morgan Stanley targets $9,500/ton by end of 2025
• J.P. Morgan: “Copper is at the heart of a multi-year base metals upcycle”

---

📉 Technical Outlook: Higher Lows, Strong Rebounds, and a Breakout in Sight

Charts by TradingView

From a charting perspective, Copper’s structure confirms what the fundamentals are screaming:

• After topping around $5.00 in March 2022, the price dropped sharply to just above $3.00 by mid-summer
• That area marked a strong support zone, coinciding with old resistance from 2017–2018
• A higher low at $3.50 was made in October 2023, setting the tone for a new bullish phase
• Since then, Copper has respected a clear ascending trendline

🚨 The drop in late March / early April (coinciding with the start of the Tariff Saga) brought high volatility, sending price briefly from above $5.00 to around $4.00 support. But bulls stepped in fast.

Now, price is back near $5.00, threatening a major breakout.

---

🎯 What’s Next?

If Copper breaks above the $5.00 resistance zone, we could see acceleration toward the $7.00 level — a feasible medium-term target, supported by both supply/demand dynamics and price structure.

---

📊 Trading Plan:

With fundamentals and technicals aligned, the strategy is straightforward:
Buy dips, especially toward $4.60–$4.70, and look for confirmation of breakout above $5.00 for medium-term positioning.

---

📌 Big moves need big reasons — and Copper has plenty.
This may be just the beginning of a multi-year opportunity. 🚀